Advertisement

Use of a Bayesian risk-mapping technique to estimate spatial risks for mare reproductive loss syndrome in Kentucky

James A. ThompsonDepartment of Large Animal Medicine and Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-4475.

Search for other papers by James A. Thompson in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
 DVM, DVSc
,
Stuart E. Brown IIHagyard-Davidson-McGee Associates, 4250 Iron Works Pike, Lexington, KY 40511-8491.

Search for other papers by Stuart E. Brown II in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
 DVM
,
W. Thomas RiddleRood & Riddle Equine Hospital, PO Box 12070, Lexington, KY 40580-2070.

Search for other papers by W. Thomas Riddle in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
 DVM
,
Janyce C. SeahornEquine Veterinary Specialists, 629 Craig Ln, Georgetown, KY 40324.

Search for other papers by Janyce C. Seahorn in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
 DVM, MS
, and
Noah D. CohenDepartment of Large Animal Medicine and Surgery, College of Veterinary Medicine, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-4475.

Search for other papers by Noah D. Cohen in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
 VMD, MPH, PhD

Abstract

Objective—To estimate spatial risks associated with mare reproductive loss syndrome (MRLS) during 2001 among horses in a specific study population and partition the herd effects into those attributable to herd location and those that were spatially random and likely attributable to herd management.

Animals—Pregnant broodmares from 62 farms in 7 counties in central Kentucky.

Procedure—Veterinarians provided the 2001 abortion incidence proportions for each farm included in the study. Farms were georeferenced and data were analyzed by use of a fully Bayesian risk-mapping technique.

Results—Large farm-to-farm variation in MRLS incidence proportions was identified. The farm-to-farm variation was largely attributed to spatial location rather than to spatially random herd effects

Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—Results indicate that there are considerable data to support an ecologic cause and potential ecologic risk factors for MRLS. Veterinary practitioners with more detailed knowledge of the ecology in the 7 counties in Kentucky that were investigated may provide additional data that would assist in the deduction of the causal factor of MRLS via informal geographic information systems analyses and suggest factors for inclusion in further investigations. (Am J Vet Res 2005;66:17–20)

Abstract

Objective—To estimate spatial risks associated with mare reproductive loss syndrome (MRLS) during 2001 among horses in a specific study population and partition the herd effects into those attributable to herd location and those that were spatially random and likely attributable to herd management.

Animals—Pregnant broodmares from 62 farms in 7 counties in central Kentucky.

Procedure—Veterinarians provided the 2001 abortion incidence proportions for each farm included in the study. Farms were georeferenced and data were analyzed by use of a fully Bayesian risk-mapping technique.

Results—Large farm-to-farm variation in MRLS incidence proportions was identified. The farm-to-farm variation was largely attributed to spatial location rather than to spatially random herd effects

Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—Results indicate that there are considerable data to support an ecologic cause and potential ecologic risk factors for MRLS. Veterinary practitioners with more detailed knowledge of the ecology in the 7 counties in Kentucky that were investigated may provide additional data that would assist in the deduction of the causal factor of MRLS via informal geographic information systems analyses and suggest factors for inclusion in further investigations. (Am J Vet Res 2005;66:17–20)