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Abstract

Objective—To create a stochastic model to quantify the risk that shipments of cattle from regions within the United States would contain animals seropositive for bluetongue virus and to determine shipment-level accuracy of serologic testing by use of a competitive ELISA (c-ELISA).

Sample Population—19,216 shipments containing 528,918 cattle and calves.

Procedure—Data were obtained on number of animals and state of origin of cattle in export shipments originating within the United States between January 1994 and March 2002. Probability distributions for size of export shipments were determined for all states within the United States, and distributions for agar gel immunodiffusion and c-ELISA accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) were determined from expert opinion and review of the literature. The model simulated selection of a shipment and then determined the probability that a threshold number or percentage of cattle within that shipment would have a positive c-ELISA result. Shipment-level sensitivity, specificity, positive-predictive value, and negative-predictive value were calculated.

Results—Substantial differences were evident in the regional probability of a shipment being declared positive, with shipments from northeastern states having the lowest probability and shipments from southwestern states having the highest probability. The c- ELISA had variable predictive values at the shipment level, depending on the threshold used and the prevalence of antibody-positive cattle within the region.

Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—Results from this study will aid importers in making scientifically based decisions regarding risk of importing antibodypositive cattle. ( Am J Vet Res 2003;64:520–529)

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treatment. The funding will enable research-ers to investigate the epidemiology of porcine circovirus infections in boar studs and determine the role of non-porcine circovirus factors in causing PCVAD. Researchers will develop objective monitoring

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, Columbia, Mo., president ; Dr. Eileen L. Thacker, Beltsville, Md., vice president ; and Robert P. Ellis, PhD, Fort Collins, Colo., executive director . The Association for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine named Dr. David W. Hird

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for research and graduate studies at the veterinary college since 1999. He has also served as director of the Center for Computational Epidemiology, Bioinformatics, and Risk Analysis; director of Biomedical Information Management Systems; and professor

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such as epidemiology, population management and statistical tracking, immunology, infectious disease, behavior, public health, general management and veterinary forensics.” On its website, the Association of Shelter Veterinarians notes a growing

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epidemiology among equine practitioners is that it is concerned with areas such as public health, food safety, and regulatory medicine. In actuality, Dr. Cohen said, epidemiology also is directly relevant to individual patient care. Equine practitioners often

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5N1 avian influenza, with 96 deaths. The USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service is responding with expertise in epidemiology and laboratory diagnostics, as well as field experience in the eradication of avian influenza and exotic Newcastle

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; and Robert P. Ellis, PhD, Fort Collins, Colo., executive director . The Association for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine named Dr. Hollis N. Erb as recipient of the 2009 Calvin W. Schwabe Award. She is a professor of epidemiology at

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“educational epidemiology.” She also held a part-time faculty position in the university's Department of Community Health Sciences. Born and raised in India, Dr. Raghavan earned her veterinary degree from Ukrainian National Agricultural University Faculty of

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; and Robert P. Ellis, PhD, Fort Collins, Colo., executive director . AVEPM awards The Association for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine awarded the 2011 Calvin W. Schwabe Award to Dr. Dale D. Hancock, professor of epidemiology in

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