Potential impact of introduction of foot-and-mouth disease from wild pigs into commercial livestock premises in California

Mario Pineda-Krch Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616.

Search for other papers by Mario Pineda-Krch in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
 PhD
,
Joshua M. O'Brien Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616.

Search for other papers by Joshua M. O'Brien in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
 MSc
,
Clair Thunes Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616.

Search for other papers by Clair Thunes in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
 PhD
, and
Tim E. Carpenter Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California-Davis, Davis, CA 95616.

Search for other papers by Tim E. Carpenter in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
 PhD

Abstract

Objective—To estimate potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) if introduced from wild pigs in California and to evaluate efficacies of various control strategies.

Sample Population—Data for California livestock and from hunter surveys on wild pigs in California.

Procedures—A spatial, stochastic simulation model was used to simulate FMD epidemics that might occur if a dairy or beef herd were infected from contact with a wild pig. Index herd location and type were examined, in addition to different statewide movement ban (SWMB) durations, to determine their effect on extent of the epidemic.

Results—Duration, number of infected premises, size of simulated outbreak, number of culled animals, and spatial distribution of infected herds resulting from the simulated outbreaks varied considerably among geographic regions, depending on index case type and location. Outbreaks beginning in the southern region of California were consistently longest, whereas those beginning in the northern region were shortest. The largest outbreaks resulted from index cases located in the southern and valley regions, whereas outbreaks were smallest when originating in the Sonoma or northern regions. For all regions, when the index herd was a dairy herd, size and duration of the outbreak were consistently reduced with implementation of an SWMB ≥ 3 days.

Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—Introduction of FMDV from wild pigs into a dairy or beef herd could result in a large and rapidly spreading outbreak, potentially affecting large numbers of herds. Size and duration of the outbreak might be reduced with an SWMB; however, the impact is highly dependent on the index herd type and location.

Abstract

Objective—To estimate potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) if introduced from wild pigs in California and to evaluate efficacies of various control strategies.

Sample Population—Data for California livestock and from hunter surveys on wild pigs in California.

Procedures—A spatial, stochastic simulation model was used to simulate FMD epidemics that might occur if a dairy or beef herd were infected from contact with a wild pig. Index herd location and type were examined, in addition to different statewide movement ban (SWMB) durations, to determine their effect on extent of the epidemic.

Results—Duration, number of infected premises, size of simulated outbreak, number of culled animals, and spatial distribution of infected herds resulting from the simulated outbreaks varied considerably among geographic regions, depending on index case type and location. Outbreaks beginning in the southern region of California were consistently longest, whereas those beginning in the northern region were shortest. The largest outbreaks resulted from index cases located in the southern and valley regions, whereas outbreaks were smallest when originating in the Sonoma or northern regions. For all regions, when the index herd was a dairy herd, size and duration of the outbreak were consistently reduced with implementation of an SWMB ≥ 3 days.

Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—Introduction of FMDV from wild pigs into a dairy or beef herd could result in a large and rapidly spreading outbreak, potentially affecting large numbers of herds. Size and duration of the outbreak might be reduced with an SWMB; however, the impact is highly dependent on the index herd type and location.

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 65 0 0
Full Text Views 809 585 79
PDF Downloads 216 113 22
Advertisement